DreamTeam Time

Round 14, 2011

Posted by The Shadow on June 22, 2011 (0 Comments)

After the past two rounds, all I can say is "wow". DreamTeam teams have been decimated with injuries, suspensions, byes, holidays to the USA and possibly even an out this week due to the "ash cloud". I find it hard to believe that the Gold Coast won't be able to get Gary Ablett back up there for the Suns game on Saturday night, but stranger things have happened.


Let's just do a quick run down of the popular players who have missed/will be missed:

Dane Swan - (Available) - Trip to Arizona
Scott Pendlebury, Heath Shaw, Alan Didak, Andrew Krakouer - (Available) - Bye
Aaron Sandilands - (Test) - Turf toe - Expected to be fit
Jed Adock - (Round 16) - Finger
Zach Smith - (Available) - Rested
David Swallow- (Available) - Rested
Lance Franklin - (Round 15) - Suspended
Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna, Brendan Goddard, Sam Fisher, Nick Dal Santo, Jason Gram - (Round 15) - Bye
Jimmy Bartel - (Test) - Concussion - Not looking good for Jimmy. Could miss more than 1 week
Gary Ablett - (Travel) - Grounded in Melbourne due to Chilean ash cloud; they'll get him.
Joel Selwood - (Round 17) - Suspended
David Mundy -  (Round 21) - Ankle
Jarryd Roughead - (Season) - Achilles
Shane Mumford - (Round 16) - Suspended
Matthew Stokes - (Round 15) - Suspended
Mitch Clark - (unknown) - Ankle
James Kelly - (test) - Ankle, unlikely


There are a lot of premiums in there, so there aren't many teams who have dodged the bullets. This would explain the very low scoring averages for the past 2 weeks and the trend is expected to continue this week.

Anyways, on to our regular features:

Downgrade options:

Jeremy Howe (MEL) - $157,500 - Forward - B/E -54: Already had one price increase, but really looks comfortable out there playing AFL. Expect him to play most games for the rest of the season, and continue his solid scoring.

Luke Dahlhaus (WBD) - $88,400 - Forward - B/E -39: Started as a sub in his first game, so don't be too put off by his 34. Should continue to get a few games for now, but will always be a sub risk. 

Isaac Smith (HAW) - $151,200 - Centre/Forward - B/E -37: Finally was included in the Hawthorn lineup for his 3rd game. Didn't disappoint with a 99. It was against the Gold Coast, and Hawthorn have a huge list of injuries. So it's only a matter of time before he finds himself back in the twos.

Mitchell Golby (BRL) - $92,500 - Back - B/E -35: Hasn't shown a great deal, but should continue to get opportunities in a rebuilding Brisbane side.

Patrick Karnezis (BRL) - $92,500 - Forward - Played first game as sub and scored 45 in 2nd half.

Ben Bucovaz (FRE) - $80,400 - Forward - Played first game as sub. Came on in 2nd quarter, and scored 43 in 2nd half.

Verdict: If you have the cash to spare, and you need your forward sub to play a few games, take Howe. Kid looks good out there. If you are just looking to save some coin, then Dahlhaus isn't a bad option, but I'd prefer to hold out a week to see what happens with Karnezis and Bucovaz.


Cash Cows for sale:

Jack Darling, Dyson Heppell, Nick Lower, Luke Thompson, Brandon Matera, Trent McKenzie, Cameron O'Shea, Jasper Pittard, David Swallow, Reece Conca, Stewart Crameri


Verdict: Heppell can be kept as your 7th back keeper. Although has looked a bit shaky the past two weeks and will probably be rested within next few weeks. Conca should have been sold several weeks ago, so if you still have him, ouch. Talk of Darling being sent back to WAFL, so get him out if you haven't already.

 

Upgrade targets: (average score in brackets)

Backs:

Heath Shaw $363,000 (93.09)

Matt Suckling $346,400 (95.18)

Brady Rawlings $343,400 (88.83)

Corey Enright $322,400 (87.45)

Brendan Goddard $338,600 (85.58)

Goddard and Enright are great buys at those prices. Suckling continues his solid scoring, so he'd be the pick if you have the cash.


Centres:

Sam Mitchell $409,300 (109.09) - Should have been brought in 2 weeks ago.

Liam Shiels $408,100 (106.58) - On a scoring tear this season.

Matthew Boyd $424,200 (113.17) - May drop another $15,000, but still a top shelf option at this price.

Andrew Embley $367,000 (101.91) - Continues to bust out solid scores. Better options out there though

Gary Ablett $457,500 (112) - Unbelievable past 5 games

Scott Thompson $394,600 (107.75) - Solid scorer.

Jack Redden $395,900 (106.17) - Unique choice

Dale Thomas $423,100 (106.30) - No more byes, and earned the "best player in game" tag from Grant Thomas

Cash to burn, take Ablett. Otherwise I like Boyd, followed by Mitchell and Thompson.

 

Rucks:

Ben McEvoy $383,900 (93.45) - Averaging 122 over past 3 games. Still a bit too risky for my liking.

Matthew Kruezer - $316,200 (99.00) - Scored a massive 133 in just his 2nd game back. Great price, but injury risk.

Cox, Goldstein and Sandilands all have massive break evens, so no need to trade for a ruckman this week. 


Forwards:

Brent Harvey $359,400 (93.08) - When is this old timer's scores going to drop? Not this season.

Matthew Pavlich $338,500 (92.92) - Got a corkie, but will be right. As consistent as they come.

Colin Sylvia $317,200 (93.67) - Amazing price thanks to a score of 12 when he came off with a corkie. Get him!

Nathan Fyfe $365,500 (99.25) - Still concerned about his shoulder. 

Paul Chapman $372,200 (99.70) - 114 break even, so can wait a week. Should be in all line ups at this price, although Geelong has a bye in rd 22.

Get Sylvia into your team. Should be the most popular upgrade this week. Pavlich is a great option followed by Chapman. Cannot go wrong.


  Future targets with big break evens:

Leigh Montagna, Steve Johnson, Dean Cox, Dane Swan, Jed Adcock, Matthew Boyd.



Hopefully this makes a few of your trading decisions easier this week.


The Shadow....

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